$B#3(B $BIT3N

3.1 $B!V
$Bl9g$K$O!"@QN)6b$r;}$?$J$$Ij2]J}<0$NG/6b@)EY$,@QN)J}<0(B $B$NG/6b@)EY$KHf$Y$F8D?M$N8|@8$rA}Bg$5$;$k$?$a!"=>$C$F$=$N>l9g$K$OIj2]J}<0$,K>(B $B$^$7$$$H$$$&$3$H$r0UL#$9$k$b$N$G$"$k!#@QN)J}<0$HIj2]J}<0$NAjBPE*M%0L@-$r9M$((B $B$k;~$K$h$/MQ$$$i$l$k$3$N!VK!B'!W$N9M$(J}$r$^$:@bL@$7$?$$!#(B

$B$^$:0J2<$N$h$&$JA0Ds$r$*$/!#(B

$BJ]81NAN(!'&A(B

$BG/6b5kIUN(!'&B(B

n$B!'?M8}@.D9N((B

w$B!'DB6b(B

m$B!'O+F/$KBN2=$5$l$?5;=Q?JJbN((B

r$B!'Mx;RN((B

(1)$B<0(B $B!'(B Nt+1 = Nt(1+n)

(2)$B<0(B $B!'(B Wt+1 = Wt(1+m)

$B@QN)J}<0$,
(3)$B<0(B $B!'(B A = $B&A(Bw(1+r)

$B$^$?F1$88D?M$,B`?&$7$F$+$i
(4)$B<0(B $B!'(B B = $B&B(Bw

(2)$B<0$+$i(B(4)$B<0$O0J2<$N$h$&$K$J$k!#(B

(5)$B<0(B $B!'(B B = $B&B(Bw(1+m)

$B@QN)J}<0$NDj5A$+$i!"(B A = B $B$G$"$kH&$G$"$k!#=>$C$F
(6)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&A(Bw(1+r) = $B&B(Bw(1+m)

(7)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&A(B = (1+m)$B&B(B/(1+r)

$BF1MM$KIj2]J}<0$N>l9g$N5r=P$H
t$B4|$KB`?&$7$F$$$kA4$F$N8D?M$,
(8)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&B(BwN

$B0lJ}$3$N4|$KA4$F$NO+F/
(9)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&A(BwN

(1)$B<0$h$j(B(9)$B<0$O
(10)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&A(BwN(1+n)

$BIj2]J}<0$NDj5A$+$i(B(8)$B<0$H(B(10)$B<0$OEy$7$$H&$G$"$k!#=>$C$F
(11)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&A(BwN(1+n) = $B&B(BwN

(12)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&A(B = $B&B(B/(1+n)

$B0J>e$rF'$^$($F!"8D?M$N@836=jF@$N3d0z8=:_2ACM$N;kE@$+$i@QN)J}<0!&Ij2]J}<0$NAj(B $BBPE*M%0L@-$K4X$9$kHf3S$r9T$&!#(B t$B4|$K@8$^$l$?8D?M$N@836=jF@$r(BM $B$H$9$k$H(B

(13)$B<0(B $B!'(B M = (1-a)w + $B&B(B(1+m)w/(1+r)

$B$H=q$1$k!#(B

(7)$B<0$r(B(13)$B<0$KBeF~$9$k$H
(14)$B<0(B $B!'(B M = [1-(1+m)$B&B(B/(1+r)]w + $B&B(B(1+m)w/(1+r) = w

$B$3$N<0$r&B$GHyJ,$9$k$H
(15)$B<0(B $B!'(B dM/d$B&B(B = 0

$B$3$l$O@QN)J}<0$N2<$G$OG/6b5kIUN($NA}8:$,8D?M$N@836=jF@$K2?$i1F6A$r5Z$\$5$J$$(B $B;v$r<($7$F$*$j!"$3$l$O@QN)J}<0$NDj5A$+$iEvA3$N7k2L$G$"$k!#(B $B0lJ}Ij2]J}<0$K$D$$$F!"(B(12)$B<0$r(B(13)$B<0$KBeF~$9$k$H!"(B

(16)$B<0(B $B!'(B M = [1-$B&B(B/(1+n)]w + [$B&B(B(1+m)/(1+r)]w

= w + $B&B(Bw(n+m-r)/(1+n+r)

$B$H$J$j!"$3$N<0$r&B$GHyJ,$9$k$H!"(B

(17)$B<0(B $B!'(B dM/d$B&B(B = w(n+m-r)/(1+n+r)

$B$H$J$k!#(B(15)$B<0$H(B(17)$B<0$O0J2<$N$h$&$J;v$r<($7$F$$$k!#(B

n+m > r$B$N;~!'(B dM/d$B&B(B($BIj2]J}<0(B) > dM/d$B&B(B($B@QN)J}<0(B) = 0

n+m = r$B$N;~!'(B dM/d$B&B(B($BIj2]J}<0(B) = dM/d$B&B(B($B@QN)J}<0(B) = 0

n+m < r$B$N;~!'(B dM/d$B&B(B($BIj2]J}<0(B) < dM/d$B&B(B($B@QN)J}<0(B) = 0

$B$D$^$j#n(B+m > r$B$H$$$&>u672<$K$*$$$F$N$_!"Ij2]J}<0$O@QN)J}<0$h$j$b8D?M$N@836=j(B $BF@$rA}Bg$5$;$k!#$3$l$,!VZL@$G$"$k!#(B

$B$7$+$7$3$NK!B'$,@.N)$9$k$?$a$K$ODj$,I,MW$G$"$k!#$^$:-!%$%s%U%l!<(B $B%7%g%s$d0lHL@83h?e=`$N>e>:$K4X$9$kIT3No$K0lDj$G$"$k$3$H!"$^$?u67$G$OL5$$$,!"7P:Q%b%G%k$K$*$$$F$h$/(B $BMQ$$$i$l$k>u67$H$7$F$N6Q9U@.D9(B(balanced growth)$B$rA[Dj$7$?>e$G@.N)$9$kK!B'$J(B $B$N$G$"$k!#$7$+$72f!9$,CN$j$?$$$N$O!"IT3No$KB8:_$9$k8=u67$K$*$$(B $B$F@QN)J}<0!&Ij2]J}<0$K$I$N$h$&$J0c$$$,B8:_$9$k$N$+$G$"$k!#(B

3.2 $B>-Mh$NIT3N
$B@QN)J}<0$NLdBjE@$O!"A0@a$G$*$$$F$-$?IT3Nl9g!"$D$^$j%$%s(B $B%U%l!<%7%g%s$d0lHL@.D9?e=`$N>e>:$K4X$9$kIT3Nl9g$KH/@8$9$k!#(B

$B@QN)J}<0$N;~!"(B t1$B@$Be$O(B t2$B;~E@$G@$BeA4BN$H$7$F(B $B&B(BwN $B$NG/6b5kIU$ro$K@.N)$7$F$$$J$1$l$P$J$i$J$$!#(B

(18)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&B(BwN/1+r = $B&A(BwN

$B$3$N<0$O
(19)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&A(B = $B&B(B/1+r $B!_(B wt2/wt1

$B&B$O$=$N;~E@$N6PO+@$Be$N=jF@$N0lDj3d9g$H$$$&@/:vE*$K7hDj$5$l$?HfN($G$"$j!"!!(B wt1 $B$O$=$N;~E@$NDB6bN($G$"$k$+$i!"N>J}$H$b4{CN?t$G$"$k!#$7$+$7(B r$B$d(B wt2 $B$O>-Mh$K$J$C$F$O$8$a$FDj$^$k$b$N$J$N$G$^$@L$CN?t$G$"$k!#(B

$B$5$F$3$3$GM=A[30$N%$%s%U%l$,5/$-$?;~!"$D$^$j>o$KMx;RN($,DB6b$N@.D9N($r2<2s$C(B $B$F$$$?$H$9$k>l9g!";~E@(B t2 $B$K$*$$$F(B(20)$B<0$K<($5$l$k;q6b$,ITB-$9$k!#(B

(20)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&B(Bwt2 - $B&A(Bwt1(1+r)

$B$3$N<0$O!"(B(18)$B<0$N4X78$rMQ$$$F0J2<$N$h$&$K=q$-D>$;$k!#(B

(21)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&A(Bwt1 = $B&B(Bwt2/1+r

(22)$B<0(B $B!'(B $B&B(Bwt2 - $B&A(Bwt1(1+r) = $B&B(B[wt2 - wt2(1+r)/(1+r)]

= $B&B(Bwt2[wt2/wt2 - (1+r)/(1+r)]

$B$D$^$jM=4|$7$?%$%s%U%l$,H/@8$7$?>l9g!"ITB-$9$k;q6b$rD4C#$9$kJ}K!$O!"Ev=iM=Dj(B $B$7$F$$$?HfN($r;v8eE*$K0z$-2<$2$k$3$H$N$_$G$"$k!#G/6b5kIU3[$O(B $B&B(Bwt2 $B$G$O$J$/!"&B(Bwt2(1+r)/(1+r) $B$KD4@0$5$l$k!#(B

$B@QN)J}<0$N$b$H$G$O!"5kIU$5$l$kG/6b3[$O9bNp@$Be$,;vA0$N6PO+;~4VFb$K5r=P$7@Q(B $B$_N)$F$?J]81NA$+$iOE$o$l$k!#$=$&$7$?N)>l$r8G;}$9$k$J$i$P!"M=A[$KH?$7$?DB6b@.(B $BD9!J%$%s%U%l$d0lHL@83h?e=`$N>e>:!K$,@8$8$?>l9g!"8xE*G/6b@)EY$OEvA36PO+Z$9$k$3$H$,$G$-$J$/$J$k!#$3$l$,@QN)J}<0$N8B3&$G$"(B $B$k!#(B

$B0lJ}$GIj2]J}<0$O$3$NITB-:b8;$rMF0W$KD4C#$9$k$3$H$,$G$-$k!#$J$<$J$i$3$&$7$?M=(B $BB,$5$l$J$$%$%s%U%l$K$h$C$F?7$?$KI,MW$H$J$C$?:b8;$r>-Mh@$Be$r$b4,$-9~$s$G9-$/(B $B5a$a$k$3$H$,$G$-$k$+$i$G$"$k!#$?$@$7Ij2]J}<0$G$O?M8}A}2CN($,$=$N$^$^G/6b$NMx(B $B2s$j$H$J$k!#$D$^$j?M8}$,A}2C$7$F$$$k4V$O%W%i%9$NMx2s$j$K$J$k$,!"?M8}$,8:>/$7(B $B$F$/$k$H%^%$%J%9$NMx2s$j$H$J$k$3$H$r0UL#$7$F$$$k!#$D$^$jIj2]J}<0$O!">-Mh$NIT(B $B3N/$D$^$j?M8}9bNp2=$K
$B0J>e$rMWLs$9$l$P
$B4pK\E*$K@QN)J}<0$O;qK\C_@QLL$G%a%j%C%H$r;}$C$F$$$k!#$7$+$7IT3Nl9g!"G/6b:b@/$rI/Gw$5$;$k!#$3$l$,@QN)J}<0!&Ij(B $B2]J}<0$=$l$>$l$N%a%j%C%H!&%G%a%j%C%H$G$"$j$I$A$i$+$,@dBPE*$KM%$l$F$$$k$H7kO@(B $B$E$1$k$3$H$O$G$-$J$$!#@QN)J}<0$N$b$H$G$O!"9bNp4|$N@83hHq$K$*$1$kM=B,$5$l$J(B $B$+$C$?%$%s%U%l!<%7%g%s$d0lHL@83h?e=`$N>e>:$H$$$C$?IT3Ne(B $B>:$H$$$C$?9bNp4|$NIT3N

$B#4(B $B?M8}9bNp2=$HG/6b:b@/$N8+DL$7(B

4.1 $B?M8}9bNp2=$N8+DL$7(B

$B?M8}9bNp2=$N?JE8$,!"Ij2]J}<0$N8xE*G/6b$N:b@/$KBg$-$J1F6A$r5Z$\$9$3$H$OA0>O(B $B$G$b3NG'$7$?DL$j$G$"$k!#$H$3$m$GF|K\$N8=9T$N8xE*G/6b@)EY$K$O!"@QN)J}<0$HIj2](B $BJ}<0$N#2$D$N:.9g$G$"$k=$@5@QN)J}<0$,:N$i$l$F$$$k!#M=A[0J>e$K?JE8$7$F$$$k?M8}(B $B9bNp2=$H;veIj2]J}<0$G1?1D$5$l$F$$$k8xE*G/6b@)EY$NB8B3$H$K$h$C$F>-MhG/6b:b(B $B@/$,$I$&$J$C$F$7$^$&$N$+$H$$$&9qL1$NIT0B$OBg$-$$!#0J2u67$rGD0.$7$F$*$-$?$$!#(B

$B?M8}9bNp2=$O8@$&$^$G$b$J$/=P@8N($NDc2<$HJ?6Qe$N=P@8N($N$3$H!#$G$"$k!#?^I=(B4$B!&(B5$B$O!"(B1992$BG/$^$G$N9g(B $B7WFCJ$N?M8}LdBj8&5f=j$H:b@/7P:Q6(2q$N;qNA$h$j:n@.$5$l$F$$$k!#(B)$B!#?d7W$K$O!">-Mh$N=P@8N($r9b$a(B $B$KA[Dj$7$F$$$k9b0L?d7W$HDc$a$KA[Dj$7$F$$$kDc0L?d7W!"$=$NCf4V$rA[Dj$7$?Cf0L?d(B $B7W$N(B3$B$D$NM=B,$,DL>o<($5$l$k$,!"$3$3$G$OCf0L?d7W$rMQ$$$F$$$k!#$3$N$h$&$J=P@8(B $BN($NM=B,$N:9$O!"e$G=EMW$J0UL#$r;}$C$F$/$k!#$3$NG/6bLdBj$K$H$C$F=EMW$J0UL#$r;}$C$F$$$k(B $B>-Mh$N?M8}9=@.$r!"=P@8N($N?d7W$+$i$"$kDxEY?d7W$9$k$3$H$,$G$-$k!#(B65$B:P0J>e?M8}(B $B$NAm?M8}$K@j$a$k3d9g!J$$$o$f$k9bNp2=N(!K$N-Mh?d7W$r<($7$?$N$,?^I=(B6 $B$G$"$k(B($B?M8}$HG/6b:b@/$N?d7W;qNA$O8|@8>J<+?H$K$h$k$b$N$,JXMx$G$"$k$,!"G/6b$N@UG$41D#$H$$$&$3$H$b$"$C$F4vJ,>-Mh$K$D$$$F3Z4QE*$K$J$i$6$k$rF@$J$$!#=>$C$F$3$3$G$O8|@8>J$h$j5R4Q@-$N9b$$$H;W$o$l$k:b@/7P:Q6(2q$N?d7W;qNA$HHf3S$7$J$,$i9M$($F$$$k!#(B)$B!#(B1994$BG/$N:b@/7P:Q6(2q$N?d7W$K$h$k$H!"$3$NHfN($O(B2050$BG/$K$O(B78,3$B!s$K$bC#$9$k!#$3$N$3$H$OG/6b:b@/$K$H$C$F$I$N$h$&$J0UL#$r;}$C$F$$$k$N$@$m$&$+!#(B

$B!!(B 4.2 $B8|@8G/6b$N@.=OEY(B

$B?M8}9bNp2=$K$h$C$F!"HoJ]81-Mh?d7W$r!"8|@8>J!&:b@/7P:Q(B $B6(2q$NN>J}$N;qNA$r4p$K<($7$?!#5r=P6b$r;YJ'$&HoJ]81J$,:b@/:F7W;;$NJs9p=q$G$"$k!VG/6b$H:b@/!W3FG/EYHG$K$*$$$FMQ$$$F$$$k;XI8!#(B)$B$r<($7$?$N$,?^I=#7$G$"$k!#$3$3$GCmL\$9(B $B$Y$-$J$N$O!":b@/7P:Q6(2q?d7W$N@.=OEY$,!"(B2040$BG/0J9_!"(B1$B$r>e2s$C$F$7$^$&$3$H$G(B $B$"$k!#$3$l$OHoJ]81$N@h?J=t9q$G(B $B$bF1MM$NLdBj$G$"$j!"$=$l$>$l8=9T$NG/6b@)EY$KBeBX$9$kMM!9$J2~3W0F$,8!F$$5$l$F(B $B$$$k(B($B@h?Jp$Hc@)EY2~3W$N$"$jJ}$r%l%]!<%H$7$?$b$N$K$O!"Nc$($P!"(BOECD(1994)$B$d(BWorld Bank(1994)$B!#(B)$B!#(B

4.3 $BG/6b:b@/<};Y$NF08~(B

$BJ]81NA5r=P3[$HG/6bJ?d7W$H6(2q?d7W$N$I$A$i$r8+$F$b!"(B2005$BG/$H$$$&6a$$>-Mh$+(B $B$iC1G/EY<};Y$,@V;z$H$J$j@QN)6b$NJ?d7W$G$O(B2040$BG/!"6(2q?d7W$G$O(B2030$BG/$G$"$k!#$$$:(B $B$l$K$7$F$b!"8|@8G/6b$N:b@/$OHs>o$K87$7$/!"G/6b:b@/$,GKC>$7$F$7$^$&2DG=@-$rHk(B $B$a$F$$$k$3$H$r<($7$F$$$k!#(B

$B#5(B $B:#8e$N8xE*G/6b@)EY$N$"$jJ}(B

5.1 $B@/:vDs8@(B

$BBh(B2$B>O$G8+$?$h$&$K!"8xE*G/6b$O>-Mh$NIT3NO$G@bL@$7$?DL$jIj2](B $BJ}<0$+@QN)J}<0$+$H$$$&A*Br$r=d$k5DO@$O!"M=B,$5$l$J$+$C$?%$%s%U%l!<%7%g%s$d0l(B $BHLJ*2A>e>:$H$$$C$?9bNp4|$NIT3Ne>:$KBP$9$kBP1~2DG=@-$H$$$&%a(B $B%j%C%H$r=O$G3NG'$7$?M=A[0J>e$K?JE8$9$k9bNp2=$d$=$l(B $B$KH<$&G/6b:b@/$N4m5!E*>u67$r9MN8$9$l$P!"8xE*G/6b@)EY$H$7$F$N5!G=$O:GDc8B$N4p(B $BACG/6b$KG$$;!"Fs2sItJ,$O2DG=$J8B$j8D?M$N@QN)J}<0$K0\9T!"$D$^$j8xE*G/6b$H$7$F(B $B$OGQ;_$7L11D2=$9$k$N$,K>$^$7$$$@$m$&!#0J2$l$K$D$$$F8=e$G!"$h$jNI$$@)EY$K$7$F$f$/0Y$N2~3W0F$r(B $B<($7$?$$!#(B

(1)$B4V@\@G$r:b8;$H$7$?4pACG/6b(B

$B4pACG/6b$H$O!"Bh(B2$B>O$G3NG'$7$?8xE*G/6b$H$7$F$N:GDc8B$N5!G=$r2L$?$9$b$N$G$"$j(B $BIc8"E*Lr3d$H>-Mh$NIT3Ne40A4$KIj2]J}<0$G1?1D$5$l$F$*$j!"9q8K$,(B3$BJ,$N(B1$B$NIiC4$r(B $BC4$C$F$$$k!#$7$+$72f$,9q$N8=9T$N4pACG/6b@)EY$O!"J]81NA$,0lN'Dj3[$G8D!9?M$NIi(B $BC4G=NO$r9MN8$7$F$$$J$$E@$d!"6/@)2CF~$N86B'$K$b4X$o$i$:
$B$3$&$7$?LdBj$N:,K\E*2r7h$K$O!"4V@\@G$r:b8;$H$7$?4pACG/6b$NF3F~$,M-8z$G$"$k!#(B $B@GK!<0$r4pK\$H$9$l$P!"9qL1A4$F$NJ]81NA$N;YJ'$$$dG/6b5kIU$N5-O?Ey$N0l@Z$N5-O?(B $B$,L5$/$J$j!"0lDjG/Np$KC#$9$l$PC/$G$bDj3[$NG/6b$ru$NLdBjE@$r2r7h$9$kK>$^$7$$JQ2=$G$"$k$7!"$^$?J]81NA$ND'<}$No$K8zN(E*$G$"$k!#3$30$Ne$N@G6bJ}<0$G!"B>=t9q$O$9$Y$F40A4$J@GJ}<0$G$"$k!#!"0lDjG/Np$KC#$7$?$=$N9q$N9qL1$G$"$l$PC/$G$bDj3[$NG/6b$,;Y5k$5$l(B $B$k!#(B

$B4V@\@G$K$b!"L\E*@G$r?7$?$K@_CV$9$kJ}K!$H0lHL@G<}$+$iD4C#$9$kJ}K!$H$,$"$k$,!"(B $B$$$:$l$K$7$F$b8=:_(B5$B!s$N>CHq@G$r>-MhE*$K$OBgI}$K0z$->e$2$6$k$rF@$J$$!#$7$+$7(B $B>CHq@G0z$->e$2$O@/<#E*$Ke$2$F$$$/$3$H$GCJ3,E*$K;ve$N@GK!<0$K6a$E(B $B$1$F$f$/$H$$$&J}K!$,:G$b8=
(2)$BJs=7HfNcItJ,!JFs3,ItJ,!K$NL11D2=(B

$B8|@8G/6b$rCf?4$H$7$?Js=7HfNcItJ,$N8xE*G/6b$O@$Be4V$NI^=u$r%b%C%H!<$K;ve(B $BIj2]J}<0$G1?1D$5$l$F$$$k!#$7$+$7@$Be4V$NI^=u$,0UL#$N$J$$5DO@$G$"$k$3$H$O$$$^(B $B$^$G=R$Y$F$-$?DL$j$G$"$k!#0lJ}$G8|@8G/6b$O?M8}9bNp2=$K$h$C$F:b@/$,4m5!E*>u67(B $B$K$"$jIj2]J}<0$O$`$7$m320-$N$"$k9=B$E*7g4Y$r;}$D@)EY$K$J$C$F$7$^$C$F$$$k!#$=(B $B$3$G8xE*G/6b$O4pACItJ,$@$1$K$=$NLr3d$rG$$;$FFs3,ItJ,$OL11D2=!"$D$^$j8xE*G/6b(B $B$H$7$F$OGQ;_$7$F$7$^$&$Y$-$G$"$k!#8=9T$NFs3,ItJ,$O!"$=$NLr3d!&L\E*$,L@3N$G$J(B $B$$$P$+$j$+!"9q$K$H$C$F$b9qL1$K$H$C$F$bM-32$J%7%9%F%`$@$+$i$G$"$k!#L11D$N@QN)(B $BJ}<0$KFCD'E*$JLdBjE@!"$9$J$o$A%$%s%U%lEy$NIT3N.8}(B(1990),p108-109$B$r;2>H!#(B)$B8=:_!"6bMx<+M32=$,?J$s$G$$$k(B $B0Y!"6bMx$O%$%s%U%l$KO"F0$7$F>e$,$kMM$K$J$C$F$-$F$$$k!#e$,$C$?!#F|K\$G$bCe!9$H6bMx$N<+M32=$,?J9T$7$D(B $B$D$"$k8=:_!"@QN)J}<0$K$?$$$9$k=>Mh$NLdBjE@$O$"$F$O$^$i$J$/$J$j$D$D$"$k!#@QN)(B $B6b$N1?MQ$J$I$r8zN(E*$K9T$$Mx2s$j$r$h$/$9$l$P!"Mx;RN($,DB6b$N@.D9N($r2<2s$k$H(B $B$$$&;vBV$rHr$1$k$3$H$,$G$-$k$N$G$O$J$$$@$m$&$+!#(B(2)$BIT3Nl9g!"6qBNE*$K$O@83hJ]8n@)EY!"$"$k$$$O!VIi$N=jF@@GJ}<0!W$,9M$($i$l$k!#(B)$B$K$h$C$F:GDc(B $B@83h?e=`$rJ]>Z$9$k$3$H$,$G$-$k!#$3$N@)EY$O9bNp]$H$9$k$b$N$G$O$J(B $B$/!"c@)EY$G$"$k!#$3$&$7$?@)EY$N=<(B $B
$B8=:_$NF|K\$G$OFs3,ItJ,$K4X$7$F!"@QN)J}<0$N$_$G1?1D$9$k$3$H$NIT3NEy$N%j%9%/(B $B$h$j$b>.$5$$$H9M$($i$l!"IT3NH$i$7(B $B$F$"$^$j0UL#$,L5$/$J$C$F$-$F$$$k!#(B

$B!!(B 5.2 $B@QN)J}<00\9T;~$NLdBjE@(B

$BIj2]J}<0$+$i@QN)J}<0$K0\9T$9$k2aDx$NG/6bJ]812CF~$N6PO+J}$rIiC4$7$J$1$l$P$J$i$J$$!#$$(B $B$o$f$k!VFs=E$NIiC4!WLdBj$,@8$8$F$7$^$&!#(B

$B$7$+$7!"@/:vJQ99$d@)EY@Z$jBX$($N>l9g$NK\49$5(B $B$;$k$H$$$&K\e$G$=$NJ}K!$rLO:w$9$k$Y$-$@$m$&!#(B $B$b$C$H$b8=H!#(B)$B!#(B

5.3 $B@QN)J}<00\9T$N>r7o(B

$BIj2]J}<0$+$i@QN)J}<0$X$N@)EYJQ99$r@.8y$5$;$k$?$a$N>r7o$O0J2<$N$h$&$JE@$G$"(B $B$k!#(B

$B$^$:4{B8$NDjG/B`?&Z$9$k$3$H$G$"$k!#;Y5k8:3[$O$$$^$^$G(B $B5DO@$7$F$-$?$h$&$K9bNpl9gH`$i$X$N;Y(B $B5k3[$O@/<#E*$K8:3[$5$l$k1?L?$K$"$k!#(B

$Bl$K;2F~$9$k
$B:G8e$K!"$9$G$KO+F/;T>l$K;2F~$7$F$$$k8=Lr@$Be$KBP$7$F$O8=9T$NIj2]J}<0$K;D$k(B $B$+!"?7$7$$@QN)J}<0$N@)EY$K0\$k$+$NA*Br8"$rM?$($k$Y$-$G$"$k!#?7@)EY$N0\9T$9$k(B $B?M$KBP$7$F$O!":#$^$G5l@)EY$N5r=P$7$F$-$?J,$K$D$$$F!"@/I\$,:D7t$rH/9T$7$F$=$N(B $B;Y5k$rJ]>Z$9$k$Y$-$G$"$k!#(B $B0J>e!#(B

$BJdO@!'3$30$NG/6b@)EY$HG/6b2~3W(B

$BBh(B4$B>O$G=R$Y$?$h$&$K!"8xE*G/6b$N:b@/<};Y$O>-Mh$N?M8}9=@.HfN($KBg$-$/:81&$5$l(B $B$k!#A4?M8}$K@j$a$k9bNp$N2$JF@h?J/$J$/$J$$!#$=$N$?$a@h?Jp$Hc@)EY2~3W$N8=>u$rCN$C$F$*$/$3$H$O!"$o$,9q$NG/6bLdBj$r9M$($k>e$G$b(B $BM-0U5A$G$"$m$&!#0J2<$Kp!"(B(2)$B4JC1$Jc@)EY$N(B $B@bL@$HG/6b2~3W$N@.8yNc$r!"$4$/4JC1$K$G$O$"$k$,!"5-=R$7$F$*$-$?$$(B($Be(B(1993)$B$K0M5r$7$?!#(B)$B!#(B

$B!c3F9q$N?M8}9bNp2=M=A[!d(B

$B?^I=(B14$B$O%"%a%j%+!&F|K\!&%I%$%D!&%U%i%s%9!&%$%?%j%"!&%$%.%j%9!&%+%J%@$N(B1965 $BG/$+$i$N?M8}@.D9N($Ne!K$N3d9g$O:#8e(B40$BG/4V(B $B$K3F9q$H$b$K5^7c$K>e>:$9$k$3$H$,8+9~$^$l$F$$$k!#9bNp2=$KH<$$(BGDP$B$K@j$a$k9q$NG/6b;Y=P$N3d9g$,9b$^$C$F$$$k$3$H$r<($7$?$N?^I=(B15$B$G$"$k!#$3$N?d7W$K$h$l$P!"FC$K%$%?%j%"$O5^7c$J;Y=P$,8+9~$^$l$F$*$j!"(B2040$BG/$K$O(BGDP$B$N(B23$B!s$NG/6b;Y=P3[$rJz$($k$3$H$K$J$k!#$^$?F|K\$r4^$`$[$+$N=t9q$b$*$h$=(B2040$BG/$K$O8xE*G/6b$NIiC4$,%T!<%/$KC#$9$k8+9~$_$H$J$C$F$$$k!#(B

$B!c3F9q$NG/6b%7%9%F%`!d(B

$B!J%"%a%j%+!K(B

$B%"%a%j%+$G$OO78e$N@83h;q6b3NJ]$K4X$7$F<+=uEXNO$r=E;k$9$k798~$,@h?J9q$NCf$G:G(B $B$b6/$$!#cG/6b$O(BOASDI$B!J(BOld-Age Survivors and Disablity Insurance$B!K$H8F(B $B$P$l!";ve$N4pACG/6b$G$"$k$,!"$=$NG/6b5kIU?e=`$OB>$N=t9q$+$i$9$l$PAjBPE*$K(B $BDc$a$G$"$k!#$^$?$3$l$rJd40$9$k?&0hG/6b$d8D?MG/6b$b2CF~cG/6b$@$1$GO78e$N@83h$rOE$C$F$$$k!#$3$N(BOASDI$B$O>C(B $BHqeIj2]J}<0$G1?1D$5$l$F$$$k!#$3$N$?$a?M8}9b(B $BNp2=$KH<$&G/6b:b@/I/Gw$OF|K\F1MM$NLdBj$G$"$k!#(B

$B$3$NLdBj$KBP=h$9$k$?$a$KG/6b2~3W0Q0w2q!J%0%j!<%s%9%Q%s0Q0w2q!K$,@_CV$5$l!"(B 1983$BG/$K$O9bNp2=$K$h$kG/6b:b@/>e$NIiC4A}$rC/$,$I$N$h$&$J7A$GC4$C$F9T$/$+$K$D(B $B$$$F$N%k!<%k$,5D2q$G3NN)$5$l$?!#
(1) $BG/6bJ]81NAN($rEv;~(B10.8$B!s$+$i(B12.4$B!s$K0z$->e$2$k!#$3$l$O2~@50J9_(B75$BG/4V$O:F(B $B$S0z$->e$2$kI,MW$,$J$$MM$K7W;;$5$l$??tCM$G$"$C$?!#(B
(2) $BG/6b;Y5k3+;OG/Np$r(B65$B:P$+$i(B67$B:P$K0z$->e$2$k!#(B
(3) $B4p=`G/Np$+$iG/6b$r
$B!J%I%$%D!K(B

$B%I%$%D$OF|K\$HF1MM$K9bNp2=$N?JE8$,5^7c$K?J$`$3$H$,8+9~$^$l$F$$$k9q$G$"$k!#(B 1992$BG/$K?7$7$$G/6bK!$,;\9T$5$l!"9bNp2=$KH<$&IiC4A}$r(B(1)$B5r=P ($B#1(B) $BG/6b?e=`$O=>A05kM?$N0lDj3d9g$G$"$j!"G/6be>:N($K9g$o$;$F5k(B $BIU?e=`$r%9%i%$%I$5$;$k!#(B
($B#2(B) $BG/6b;Y5k3+;OG/Np$r(B65$B:P$GE}0l$9$k!#$A$J$_$KD94|2CF~$NCK;R$N>l9g=>A0$N$7(B $B5Y2q$7G/Np$O(B63$B:P!#(B
($B#3(B) $B9q8KIiC4N($rJ]81NAN($N>e>:$KHfNc$5$;$k$+$?$A$G0z$->e$2$F$$$/!#(B

$B!J%$%.%j%9!K(B

$B%$%.%j%9$N8xE*G/6b$O
(1) $BO78e@83hHq$N:GDc3[$O4pACG/6b%7%9%F%`$K$h$C$FJ]>c$9$k!#(B
(2)$B=>A0$N@83h?e=`$N0];}$K4X$9$kItJ,$O86B'$H$7$F4k6H$H8D?M$N<+=uEXNO$K0Q$M$i$l$F$$$k!#(B
(3)$BG/6b@)EY0J30$G$b@G@)$rCf?4$H$7$?MM!9$Jc@)EY$r;Y1g$9$k@)EY$,B8:_$9$k!#(B
$B%$%.%j%9$O(B1980$BG/Be;~E@$G(B65$B:P0J>e$NA4?M8}$K@j$a$k3d9g$,(B15$B%Q!<%;%s%H$r@j$a!"$=$N8e99$J$k9bNp2=$N?JE8$,M=A[$5$l$F$$$?!#$3$N9bNp2=$HG/6b$N@.=O2=$NLdBj$O%5%C%A%c!<@/8"$N9T$C$?G/6b2~3W$K$h$C$F4KOB$5$l$?!#%5%C%A%c!<@/8"$N9T$C$?2~3W$NMWE@$O
(1)$B=jF@HfNcG/6b$N5kIU?e=`$r(B1999$BG/$+$iCJ3,E*$K0z$-2<$2$k!#(B
(2)$B@G@)E,3J$N8D?MG/6b$rAO@_$9$k!#HoMQ $B%5%C%A%c!<@/8"$NG/6b2~3W$K$h$j=jF@HfNc$NG/6bItJ,$O(B1999$BG/0J9_$N>-Mh$*$h$=H>8:$9$k$3$H$H$J$k!#O78eJ]>Z$K4X$9$k@/I\$N@UG$$r>.$5$/$7!"5U$K8D?M$N<+=uEXNO$rB%$90Y$KG/6b$NA*Br;h$r3HBg$7!"@G@)$K$h$C$F9q$,8D?M$r6(NO$K%P%C%/%"%C%W$9$k!"$H$$$&$N$,?7$?$J%$%.%j%9$NG/6bA|$G$"$k!#(B

$B;29MJ88%(B

$B5m4]Ao(B(1996)$B!X8xE*G/6b$N:b@/J}<0!Y!JElMN7P:Q?7Js
$B0fKYMx9((B(1995)$B!X:b@/!Y!J4dGH=qE9!K(B

$BED6a1I<#!"6b;RG=9(!"NSJ8;R(B(1996)$B!XG/6b$N7P:QJ,@O!Y!JElMN7P:Q?7Js
$BB<>e@6(B(1993)$B!XG/6b2~3W(B:21$B@$5*$X$N2]Bj!YElMN7P:Q?7Js
$BF#ED8`0l(B(1997)$B!VO@E@(B63:$B8xE*G/6b$O@QN)J}<0$X0\9T$7!"2DG=$J8B$jL11D2=$rB%$9$Y$-$G$"$k!W!XF|K\$NO@E@(B98$B!Y!JJ8i:=U=)!K(B

$B%[%;!"%T%K%'%i!X8|@8G/6b2~3W$rLd$&(B:$B8D?M$N@QN)J}<0$X0\9T$r!Y!JF|K\7P:Q?7J9(B1998$BG/(B6$B7n(B19$BF|D+4)!K(B

$B4]HxD>H~(B(1996)$B!X;T>l;X8~$NJ!;c2~3W!Y!JF|K\7P:Q?7J9.8}EPNI(B(1990)$B!VG/6b2~3W(B-$B;T>l<}1WN(G/6b$X$N0\9T!W!XF|K\$N@/<#7P:Q%7%9%F%`!Y!JF|K\7P:Q?7J9
Friedman, Milton, (1962) {\it Capitalism and Freedom}, The University of Chicago Press. $B!J7'C+>0IWLu!V;qK\
Laurence J. Kotlikoff, (1998)$B!H(BPrivatizing U.S. Social Security : Some Possible Effects on Intergenerarional Equity and the Economy $B!I(B,{\it Review}, volume 80, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Rowena A. Pecchenino and Patricia S. Pollard, (1998)$B!H(BReforming Social Security : A Welfare Analysis$B!I(B,{\it Review}, volume 80, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Paul Van den Noord and Richard Herd, (1994)$B!H(BEstimating Pension Liabilities : A Methodological Framework$B!I(B,{\it OECD Economic Studies}, No.23.

World Bank, (1994)$B!H(BAverting the old age crisis : Policies to protect the old and promote growth$B!I(B,{\it Policy Reserch Report series}, Oxford University Press.